"Experts say . . ." Wrong again
(Submitted to major US news media on 3/21/2020)
What is going on here? Is this panic actually justified? Most people worldwide sense something is wrong, but are terrified to speak out loud what their hearts feel. After all, the best Ph.D’s and scientists have been hired. The best and most sophisticated quantitative methods applied, and the world’s most expensive computers engaged. All working overtime to produce near universal results.
Results like we’ve seen in the recent past; i.e. Hillary will win by a large margin; the world’s coastal cities will be underwater; on and on. Always absolutely certain. If they’re wrong it is simply a “black swan” event; a one-in-a-million “accident”.
The reality is they are always wrong—all significant events turn out to be black swans. They missed the credit crisis entirely; they got Brexit wrong. In reality, if people did just the opposite of the scientists’ computer modeling outputs—they’d have it just about right.
Why is this?
These scientists operate in small clusters of electronic pods. They are only around people of like kind with the same education and outlook. They talk each other into a collective frenzy—convinced that their great wisdom is the answer to all questions. They are resentful, even disdaining, of opposing views, and desperate for attention and public voice. Also, always lobbying for the diversion of financial resources to whatever they are doing.
Their entire lives are played on artificial playing fields, where if it can’t be turned into number it simply doesn’t count. Most have never been involved in the craziness of the real world, and are fully unaware of the effect they have on normal families. They claim a love for mankind, but are not respectful of people as they really are.
The ones we hear are nearly all men, with huge egos. Men who increasingly have had to use ever greater exaggerations to get attention on their name, and projects, versus other academics; and, to be heard over the loud noise of their more visible populist rivals—politicians, sports and entertainment stars, etc. Scientific women speaking on the same topics would be far more moderate—far less public panic.
The report that started this particular panic, a panic that on its own has far reaching negative implications, came out of one academic group in England; very much along the pattern above.
It is terrible when anyone is seriously ill. Yet, it is also extremely unwise to disrupt all of society—all of life—not having any idea of the true societal cost: all the things they can’t put into their equations. This is how everything has gotten so quickly out of hand. Using the first day of spring as a bench mark, what were the number of flu cases last year, and the year before, worldwide; what were the numbers of deaths from those cases
: then compare. All else is speculation and rumor; traditionally discouraged.
It’s time to begin asking questions, such as, is the virus anywhere near as dangerous as the panic and disruption that this one tiny group of academics have unleashed.